current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -0.8318 True
delta_h2 3.9174 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.6132 True
price 0.6951 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -0.8318 True
delta_h2 3.9174 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.6132 True
price 0.6951 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.0810895 0.0015890899138771113
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.0038247869093696683
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.042802085057595626
grad2 1.0224902629343955 0.025640863777636667
grad3 1.01079964221033 0.026196331835739127
grad4 1.0392741459989943 0.023583406070423408
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.010131896476812183
f =  56.676965193293796 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08384269986661065
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153582
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.27192054345261096
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0368742059123859
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0666807415776354
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0976880781168963
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6784937861358902
f =  51.94991661465295 , pars =  [-0.73184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07917319932356379
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153595
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.27421387131853775
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.037060762522825
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0671471080173107
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0979461683317304
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6812236291948227
f =  55.69664628035324 , pars =  [-0.83184551  4.01740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07519804080603103
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9820004272105902
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2679049012295415
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0343540923822179
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0619482034581644
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0904625887282002
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6895339086439994
f =  207.7144411209467 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.71321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07065389272924226
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801074240144063
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2977803995476649
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.034372081729917
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0620961690516444
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0913917277552962
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.8644044357753449
f =  215.17992956448342 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.79507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09994604843466663
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153624
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.19281136859403353
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0381526696285306
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.070180030907538
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1145363819580636
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6719137950774077
f =  70.26577828095571 , pars =  [-0.93184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08764546197455274
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153586
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2497416825532747
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0382662743357844
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.068240142677778
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0997123890646974
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6807502397204461
f =  109.20975209774787 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.81740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09240871930267112
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9780152721493125
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2787808415806122
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0401250764782306
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0717530360124015
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1045886315334597
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.674757869288669
f =  1004.9508900285015 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.51321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.11151627872948969
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153596
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.16514353747053137
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.044712700494635
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0851244426898476
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.132444396415342
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.49260696987417973
f =  76.77363835703683 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.59507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07287391798437606
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153612
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.29319784346511985
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0350926715035023
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.062415198059265
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.090621992425848
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6789883323626736
f =  119.71639192459614 , pars =  [-0.73111239  3.96931575  0.64947223  0.65632861]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.06502742422087311
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9811136483405704
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.32319773976652566
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.036591212406081
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.064873789073489
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0854374620339267
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7587904225708352
f =  20.97373781042868 , pars =  [-0.72316151  3.87611471  0.63966816  0.69949864]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08076578678995164
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9792687843435367
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2651866897000478
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.03949709472245
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0713104777101004
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1070913499305657
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.727464217313302
f =  21.134671304375203 , pars =  [-0.76399019  3.85675716  0.64054582  0.6781086 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08167986092002849
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9788635693415008
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.26702406356181124
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.040136417205852
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0723929452147127
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.108753516189127
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.72774844421543
f =  21.155437547125537 , pars =  [-0.71356523  3.87411461  0.63195845  0.69864937]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0794916679011575
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9792272782477192
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2880129247972043
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0373902065233702
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0667440012769522
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0972032913182534
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7172951947567325
f =  36.983845465183435 , pars =  [-0.71869114  3.87739246  0.63495921  0.72360691]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08313190983776357
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9792952566649309
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.25469766418169465
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0444516525321415
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0806656392008076
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.117220089808901
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7071922190789152
f =  20.411880963554644 , pars =  [-0.71619107  3.8780523   0.64365153  0.70513703]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08027678041697897
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9793089140396162
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2634227064561711
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0396970123050253
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.071758320110717
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1079271854742598
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7344514636539979
f =  21.78104607390307 , pars =  [-0.70898907  3.88225467  0.64047055  0.70062563]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07985805472550116
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9793956830821646
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.26507366762699347
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0397527458237557
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0716003260629565
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1071850504295677
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7273566505950428
f =  23.740414070826258 , pars =  [-0.72393672  3.8831244   0.64743019  0.70515804]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0808654374936151
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9794135956254977
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2513086960136177
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0417666524535598
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0755855497283267
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1139900143417205
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7325660145110662
f =  19.042257419551632 , pars =  [-0.7128532   3.86882671  0.64371836  0.70320244]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0804077027819448
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791171433128113
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2694730582589746
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0394751300548803
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.071029975831605
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.106172461279928
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7363779156544122
f =  22.863890342226163 , pars =  [-0.70433595  3.8653075   0.64048038  0.70534416]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08186994694683189
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790435226553423
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.260737973547015
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.040605964549502
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0731532277525357
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1097972739760547
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7253281028079659
f =  19.56130942689199 , pars =  [-0.72229813  3.86690018  0.64418597  0.70058267]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0808260169352347
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.979076873085472
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2666823785865947
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0398564373559884
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.071832506410529
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1076746621696254
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7360382986879676
f =  34.57966318120793 , pars =  [-0.7135616   3.86414642  0.64272137  0.69445035]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08284222927214285
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790191764419617
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.25112340739876887
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0441026543776737
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.079525508102593
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1190738448329913
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7109070551162678
f =  17.930702647662184 , pars =  [-0.71535337  3.86859201  0.63968205  0.71200029]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08172795684114455
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791122415725328
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2704970652671173
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0377340861956514
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0683155805733653
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1030080303564413
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7336146705597286
f =  21.355647704522262 , pars =  [-0.71732032  3.86347908  0.6480012   0.71288392]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08182557466987203
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790051704337484
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2604160023719119
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0408977703243287
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0740031430162122
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1115505963680168
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.740237883504424
f =  18.018915141582738 , pars =  [-0.71549116  3.87042843  0.63889741  0.70741849]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07956318314935538
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791505650681152
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.28295431705622265
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0385335714890247
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0687402591106079
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1000632787852866
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7306741311457554
f =  21.999996876359056 , pars =  [-0.71455104  3.86948778  0.63934274  0.71203553]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08255176029024286
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791309438171191
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2617463728187059
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0394252684047194
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0711910399522104
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1074517101985804
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7271571150568397
f =  18.291734216576156 , pars =  [-0.71681307  3.86672708  0.63888133  0.7119884 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0805855377502407
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790732509672144
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.28012270623704844
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.039152755699568
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.069944283950705
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1021557216317437
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.728931823091583
f =  20.485046396402804 , pars =  [-0.71621752  3.86903776  0.6399017   0.71207965]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08228715979879278
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.979121550132365
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2660920640271664
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0390041752390438
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0705068295085913
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1063198803349086
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7295299260134149
f =  20.18315497208741 , pars =  [-0.71507604  3.86798543  0.64030405  0.71159009]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08206694654220181
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790995676474448
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2655134381862528
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0388956345933869
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0704790780973625
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1065060874101103
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7303520761855129
f =  21.947368087534915 , pars =  [-0.71509734  3.86819728  0.63998087  0.71283056]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.082613512732279
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791039949631956
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2638220951400522
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.03960218346853
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0715751556223012
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1079009458249356
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7277886588924326
f =  17.400177822095063 , pars =  [-0.71538175  3.86843317  0.63870795  0.71184187]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08011467935621672
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791089234451882
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2831539973545288
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0384651007528103
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0686469234020874
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1001624169797832
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7308188789777179
f =  18.825739120405284 , pars =  [-0.71560757  3.86839683  0.63829098  0.71272154]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08213094924578163
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791081642501239
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2724460699849581
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0380351852506884
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0687998465357116
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1036304849387835
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7304019148647221
f =  19.861218276995128 , pars =  [-0.71580885  3.86833413  0.63922779  0.7111087 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08037688288512705
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9791068543175118
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.27501575692934577
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.039815470868495
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0713975131065707
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1045570097966007
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7274087476806582
f =  16.18860236580905 , pars =  [-0.71596206  3.86763415  0.63882381  0.71194858]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07985079665704227
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790922243992535
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2872925539614677
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.037587020847517
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0670797568051167
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0978843525657187
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7340214710330734
f =  16.38722808361018 , pars =  [-0.71603346  3.866937    0.63840171  0.71252366]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07993670213211874
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790776435246122
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2860353895863368
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0377799562946706
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.067511609529849
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0985796639726821
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7338606253612332
f =  22.205281165529573 , pars =  [-0.71594375  3.86751361  0.63887742  0.71228773]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08048418775185334
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790897039886545
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.27171273736364815
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0416147802685254
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0750648628325272
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1084988339723687
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7254285473761165
f =  16.006549016817072 , pars =  [-0.71588946  3.86759268  0.63887696  0.71193501]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07976416543692114
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790913572636714
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.28822394460215817
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0374152085120616
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0667619870135017
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.097421561082186
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7347363952820716
f =  21.785093651754785 , pars =  [-0.71583849  3.8675389   0.6387624   0.71181428]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08271945220973546
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790902329228002
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2632697660144309
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0390850315572184
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.070604342129434
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1066128205346946
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7269896844604838
f =  21.671474092951385 , pars =  [-0.71586115  3.86763946  0.63895222  0.7119717 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08093310419122542
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790923353234738
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.27171939097674763
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0406883335394261
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0728889779964255
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1067629703565725
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7238251467476825
f =  17.218415249077832 , pars =  [-0.71595641  3.86753819  0.63891692  0.71190416]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08014612270168132
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790902179733189
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.28339919642380146
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0384459920655071
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0686137478947184
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1001199825893968
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7314800271943817
f =  19.892510350363438 , pars =  [-0.7158658   3.86765567  0.63883187  0.71199365]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08083011709499259
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790926743789944
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2767792715747207
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0398532558841438
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0712276621005452
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.104053740440306
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7256771441382485
f =  19.215143377846353 , pars =  [-0.71590584  3.86750421  0.63886954  0.71197802]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08221522198588004
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790895074557046
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2672794152810541
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.03805327286395
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0688579564421703
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1040555780501577
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7307595160829902
f =  20.745119771459233 , pars =  [-0.71585136  3.86766988  0.63887331  0.71188426]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0825588081406708
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790929714501504
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2647309294742543
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.03865686769821
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0698994059851774
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1056296661415166
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7285636588921048
f =  17.29584401796152 , pars =  [-0.71598023  3.86760078  0.63886636  0.71197479]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08018925311997153
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9790915266180514
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2831922338046331
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.038481055465659
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0686779594361104
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.1002156094975943
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7310926462678928
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.097183  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.304140  False       NaN
psi       0.168902  False       NaN
delta_h1 -0.715889   True  0.032498
delta_h2  3.867593   True  0.028529
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       0.638877   True  0.007197
price     0.712935   True  0.179553
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
